Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.
In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.
About Your Hosts
Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.
Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques. Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University
Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.
He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.
Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.
Good afternoon. This is Jim Colburn of commodity research group. I’m here with Andy Lebow also of commodity research group and we’re here to talk about energy markets along with Ed Meir. Andy and I founded commodity research group, which consults on various aspects of commodity markets. Check out our website, commodity research group.com where we post our blog and our podcast. We’d also like to thank our friend Doug Stetzer of EKT interactive oil and gas training for hosting this podcast. You can check out his daily newsletter, podcast and learning email@example.com and finally, a disclaimer. This podcast should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political, and market conditions and is not intended to refer or endorse any particular trading system. We’re not responsible for any trading decisions taken by anyone, not tended to listen and information is not guaranteed to be accurate. This is not an offer to buy or sell any derivative. Today is April 11th. It’s 1:00 PM and Andy, we have a lot to talk about is short though. Good afternoon, Jim. Good afternoon. I’d love to start with Brent ti spread options, but, um, why don’t we start with a US production because, uh, you know, yesterday the Eia came out with their monthly, uh, uh, short term energy outlook. Uh, they show they estimate production in March to be 10.4 million barrels a day. That’s up 260,000 from fab. It looks like a monster number.
Yeah, it’s definitely a big number as is, you know, that’s as it was the weekly report at uh, a 10.5 and, uh, some of these numbers are, are coming in, you know, around what the, the IAA said late last year in terms of a US production growth. They’re talking about a production growing to 10.6 and now they’ve revised that upwards to 10.7 million barrels a day. Uh, in fact there they’re looking at December production at 11.4. So they think that this another from now until December, there’s another 900,000 barrels a day. Call me coming up the pike of that, you know, that, that’s a pretty big number. Plus, uh, they’ve revised upwards next year’s production. So a US production continues to grow it at a pretty rapid pace, uh, to say the least.
Let me, let me stop you right here because over over the last month or so, we’ve been hearing more and more about the Permian takeaway that, uh, this, this rapid increase in production. Um, W we, we just don’t have enough pipeline capacity to get it to market. Um, and it, like we’re starting to see, uh, that show up in the realm. There’s a relative values, the spread markets. So why don’t you tell us what’s been going on?
Well, I think that’s true. Are beginning this, see the, uh, Midland differential to Cushing, uh, widened out to almost minus $6 and the Midland differential to, uh, use than a wind out to minus $8. You know, that typically has been running anywhere from flat to mine. One, so it’s too, so, you know, you’re definitely seeing, um, the result of the boom in, in Cushing, in the Permian production, um, relative to the lack of takeaway capacity. And it appears as though this is going to be a problem for the rest of the year because there’s no new pipeline capacity coming on until maybe first quarter of a, of 19th. So you would think these differentials are going to weaken further, which may it, which could have some issues on a production coming up.
So we’re starting to see, um, I guess over the last couple of weeks, uh, builds and Cushing, I mean, I do do, should we expect to see, is that like a, become a marginal barrel where there’s a pipeline from obviously from west Texas to Cushing. Um, do we see, do we see that even even as runs, uh, come back to we do, we see that continue to build?
I think we’re going to, we talked about that in the last podcast that we thought we’d see a w we’d see ’em Cushing begin to rebuild. I don’t think it’s going to rebuild anywhere near the 69 or 70 billion we saw a few months ago. But, uh, I think we are going to start seeing it to, uh, rebuild as, um, maybe some of the, this is Permian barrels make their way into, into Cushing rather than, uh, rather than into east Houston. However, you know, again, you look at a takeaway capacity, but you know, this is only a finite, there’s only a finite amount of pipeline capacity to get it. It’s a Cushing. However, uh, what is going to happen is, is the, uh, Canadian pipeline, the keystone that’s been down since November, December, that should begin to get up to more of, should be getting to get up to a hundred percent. And those barrels may may well make their way into, into cushioning.
Uh, one thing is clear, Andy, when we talk about these oil markets, there’s a lot of however’s. Yeah, I just, I just want to bring this up because it Wti, you know, we saw it in, was it 2011 where that Wti Brent spread went out to minus what, $27, something like that. Right. You know, I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but we are, we are seeing Brent Tki options trading yesterday. Really interesting. Uh, July 18 foodies of 2019 minus $5 puts traded. So basically if you’re a buyer of that put, it means that you think you’re looking for the, uh, uh, Wti to trade under Brent by more than $5 throughout that period. And obviously if you’re a seller, you’re were saying that’s not going to happen. So, you know, all the stuff that we’ve been hearing over the last few months is being, uh, uh, supported by, you know, paper flow that we see in the marketplace, I think.
I think, yeah, look, it certainly looks that way. A minus $5 put. So you’re, you’re looking at minus six, minus seven.
For, depending on what they, uh, depending on what they pay, of course this a seller as well.
Yeah. Now to be fair, the, the, you know, a while ago somebody bought some, a huge amount of flat calls on this Brenty I spread because of, I’m expecting Trump to do some kind of tariff that would equalize the domestic price. You know, if you remember, it was like 40, it’s still hanging out there. It’s like a four dose for each trade. Yeah. It was like 40,000 open interest. Right. That was a monster trade. Yeah. We’re not, I’m not making an assessment whether who’s right, who’s wrong, just saying laying it out there, getting back to production, uh, fatigue or all the director of the IEA, uh, was quoted yesterday in a Reuters article that, um, you know, yes, US production is, is growing rapidly, but he says us production will, will not be enough. And his reasons are a, one global oil consumption is growing rapidly and to, uh, another story that we hear a lot is the older mature fields are in decline. And He, I think he used the, uh, uh, he said that we lose a north sea field every equivalent to a north sea field every year. So basically 3 million barrels or so we lose every year. He was saying, um, what do you think about that?
I think he’s right. You know, the US production can only do so much to fill the soul called gap that many of us, many analysts such as ourselves was talked about. And that gap being the lack of, um, spending on emp, uh, during the price collapse and a 14, 15 and 16, um, which is probably going to manifest itself in 20 or 21. And, um, you know, there could be a fairly significant short fall, uh, as some of these new projects that should have been on the boards, orange a and enhance, you know, the longterm view, the intermediate term bullish view as we get into a 21 and 20, 20, 2122, you know, somewhere in somewhere in that period. And, uh, I think, uh, bureau list has been great, uh, uh, at sounding this, a sounding this warning, um, because again, there’s only so much that US production can make up on the, on the shortfall.
Right. And I, you know, if you, if you look at, so we get, we get these three reports, the EIA, they’re there, the basically the short term energy outlooks. Eia came out yesterday, a opex comes out tomorrow and the IAS comes out on Friday. And um, you know, last month after OPEC and the IEA came out with the reports, they were, I have to say they were much more friendly from the standpoint as, as we go on through 2018 into 2019, the market will tighten up significantly. And we saw a bunch of, uh, December, 2018 in June, 2019 calls trade, they were the most active over the couple of days after these reports came out. So, you know, the, again, the EIA kind of shows a slight builds going forward, you know, until you get into 2019, we’ll see what the IEA and OPEC show, what it looks like. They’re much more bullish. Um, you want to respond.
Yeah. I think the, um, if, if you look at the AIA that came out yesterday, uh, they’re looking for, as you mentioned, some modest builds in the second half. However they showed they showed a bigger draw in the first quarter then, then what, either the either old pecker the IEA is showing, but I think that what’s going to happen and these reports that are coming out tomorrow and later in the week, we may see demand in the first half revised off ports because us is cause come in with some huge numbers. Jeff. I mean, just huge. The January number, they’ve got us the math a 1.2 million barrels a day in January. I mean that’s, that’s a humongous number.
It’s gasoline was a consumption was good seasonally, right?
Yes. Helene was, was good. Uh, diesel was added control in January. Pick up five or 600 a day. I mean, that’s remarkable. Plus, um, LPGs ethane and propane where we’re really strong January. So I think we’re going to see some, some revisions. Awkward in demand in the first quarter and maybe in the second quarter we’ll find out, uh, in a couple of days. And then we’ll see for the half. It looks as though OPEC and the IEA, the OPEC report and the IEA are showing pretty good draws. What we like to do, and I know we’ve spoken to about this on our podcast where we like to take the three of them together, average them out. And um, you know, if you do that, it does look like second half full draw, two or 300,000, maybe more. Um, while first half is kind of flat to maybe in a slight truck cause some of these inventory numbers are coming it lower then expected.
You know, we’ll see where the IAA has inventories. But the EIA numbers were lower than they had originally forecast for global global inventories. But the result, uh, to, to just narrow it down, the fundamentals in crude and petroleum are good. I mean they’re, they’re, they’re bullish and I think they do support to a grit to a certain, to a large extent, they do support this big upload. We’ve seen, we’ve seen big stock draws, strong demand day supply or low relative to, to averages. And OPEC continues to, to hold the line on, uh, on, on productions. So, you know, I, I think the fundamentals are actually pretty good. And, um, you know, I’ve been reading, I’ve been reading that some bank analysts, if they’d say, well we don’t think the fundamentals really support this price. Yeah, that may be true. Cause is a geopolitical premium in the market. But you know what, Jim, I think that’s pretty clear. I think you take the fundamentals, you know, you could say it’s okay. It’s right.
Yeah, that’s true. I, I have to say though that, um, the, the funds are wicked long. You know, it’s, it’s, uh, I can understand where, you know, if you were to say, well, let’s take all the speculative length out of the marketplace, where would the price speed? You could say, you could make that argument that it’s being held up. Uh, you know, somewhat by a fund activity, but, um, and that, and that’s the thing, you know, I feel like if, if I were to buy it today, I’d be the last one in. Right. So that’s what makes me hear all this bear, this bullish stuff and it gets you all fired up and say, oh, this market’s going higher and higher. But that’s, you know, over the years. And you’d have to, we’ve trained ourselves to go against that. Crazy. The IEA is a great organization, but just in, in February of 2016, they came out with the most bearish report and then I think within a couple of days we had the bottom of the market. So now I feel like if we get a really bullish report, we had to wait to be very careful because, you know, it’s, it may be already in there. I totally agree
with him because I guess my point is, yeah, the, the fundamentals I think justify the price up here now. You know, we’ve got to look, obviously we’re looking forward, uh, you know, cause the expectations in the price and for that you look at the, you look at the curve and uh, you know, it’s amazing the backward, they should like the [inaudible] shred DCE just exploded today. Exploded. Oh Man. It’s a, you know, it had been like 40 cents a month. It’s up to 45, 46 cents a month or over over $5 saw earlier in the, in the session. And that has really not, you know, that is really not come off.
Well that brings me to let’s, let’s go back and up to maybe the front month spreads of Wti versus Brent. So back in, back in February, we were talking about up, it was like plus 45 cents for the front month and some guy came in and bought, I assume it’s the guy who knows
10,000. I know, I know some of the best traders than we’ve ever seen over our careers have been women. So I should all far away, far away. We’ll do another podcast on why that is close. It’s not even close.
But anyway, the flat, the flat put was bought 10,000 times. It trumps for three months. And you know, we were kind of like, what is that? And, and that, uh, it was April, May when went out minus 14 cents, I believe. And we had a decline in stocks at Cushing. So it was really impressive by that person, whoever the, whoever it was plunked down a little money, they were teeny options. But the, now we see, we see Brent front spread also exploding and moving higher. And the, um, you know, the fund activity, uh, there’s, there’s a great, uh, uh, John Kemp from Reuters does a great job, uh, updating, uh, in charts, the, the, um, the fund activity. And I, and I just want to mention a couple of things to you and, and for, and for the implication of it. But in January, Brent had a ratio of longs to shore. This is managing money, uh, of 11 to one and now it’s 21 to one, whereas Wti had a ratio St period of 12 to one and now it’s nine to one. So you’re seeing this speculative activity, the length anyway, net moving, you know, into Brent and Wti know. What do you want to say about that?
Well, I think that certainly the backwardation in, um, at least in the front month and Brett has, has been pretty strong. There are going through maintenances and brand production going to be down the [inaudible] friend 40. So spurg an Ekofisk is going to be down, uh, next month and into June. So I think that part of that, uh, that that’s probably the reason why Brandon has been backwardated on the, on the paper side, the physical side has been at a big discount to the paper. Um, but that’s a whole different, different story. But yeah, I think that, I think that it looks like there’s been some more money piling into a piling into Brent. Now, I do want to say, Jim, that we’ve been talking about this length, you know, wait too long for for awhile. You know, at some point I was 20 to one, you know, a few weeks ago and that correct. And I think last week sell off was probably part and parcel of that correction along with concerns about um, the uh, free, uh, about free trade and tariffs. Um,
yeah, again, I don’t go too crazy over these fun numbers cause they’re there as of, I mean they come out Friday afternoon and there as of Tuesday afternoon. So you get a lot of uh, significant trading throughout the week. It’s not picked up by these. Yeah. Yup. Sorry. And even though we’ve been saying, oh, you know, the funds are too long, it’s got to be a correction and we sold out last week and now we make it too high. You know, those guys were right in breadth. Right. Great Quality. They were right. Friend made a new friend made a new high.
It’s almost like the locals on the floor. He used to push the market and just to see if, you know, if the people come in selling it or you’d hit stops and to be more buying and they get information that like these are monster funds coming in and pushing her up and saying, okay, you want to sell it, where are you? And the salaries aren’t there. It keeps going up. Very cool. Um, let’s just take a little move into gasoline. We talked about, um, you know, we’re, we’re going into the season with higher gasoline prices. Um, I think the EIA a estimated that the average family would be paying $190 more. Um, I guess that offsets some of the, uh, tax break. What’s his tax bill? Yeah. So what do you think, what’s your feeling about gasoline going forward?
You don’t really like to sell it through there. The season, uh, however the gasoline has got some headwinds and one of them you just mentioned, this is a hire pump prices. And the other major headwind is Europe is really long Gasol. Uh, they’ve been storing gasoline on ships. I believe that the Ara stock levels, Amsterdam, Rotterdam in Antwerp is, I don’t know if record but it’s been growing. It’s been growing every single week and it’s summer grade gasoline that’s being stored right now and almost certainly that summer great gasoline is going to end up, uh, either in the u s or West Africa. And I think if you see any signs of strength here in the northeast, uh, we’re going to start seeing some cargos coming in from, from Europe. And it could be, that’s definitely going to inhibit, inhibit gasoline as, as the fact that production is about to rise as crew runs. Increased demand was great in January and first quarter, the second quarter. I think this last monthly has, has us as unchanged. So, um, gasoline is, is what is something to watch cause that could, that could really be a, that could really be a problem.
Yeah. I always, we talk about the stock levels versus a five year average. I also like to look in, uh, the uh, um, they supply this stocks compared to the, uh, daily demand. But you know, on gasoline it’s, it, it’s also a little misleading because it doesn’t account exports. Are we still going to see good export markets from gasoline or,
I think so. I think we will. There’s still some, uh, structural problems and Latin America saw, I don’t know if it will be quite where we were last year. You know, we had a great march, exports were, were really strong, but we clearly need export demand to, to support the, uh, the gasoline markets. That’s certainly something to watch
and did because we’re making so much. Yeah, yeah, yeah. In terms of, uh, you know, in terms of inventories day supply, yes. You said if you look at at stocks divided by a demand, it’s around average at around 25, 25 and a half. Maybe a little, maybe were a little long, but not too, not too much. So average is good compared to where we’ve been over the last few years. Oh yeah, definitely. Yeah. Yeah. So it’s, so it’s down and moving into distal let’s a little better outlook for distalance would you say way better? Way Better.
I think a way better. You know, again, we’ll, we’ll see what happens with these tariffs and how that changes, uh,
global flows. Jim Is, you and I Dowe fix, tend to find a way to find the markets. Oil Fuck goes where it’s most needed. We kind of, you know, we saw that there was some stories and soybeans where, um, you know, you pushed you the trade routes around a little bit. You know, it’s, it’s frustrating to people who are in the trade, but, uh, you know, um, I think, uh, China was buying beans from, from Brazil, the beans that they normally buy from us, and then a whole bunch of beans were bought to which people said they were going to Europe from the u s so, so it’s like, okay, you’re taking Brazil beans that we’re going to Europe now that they’re going to China and the ones that we’re going to, China and I loan in Europe, so everybody pays. Like the producers don’t get as much and the consumers pay it. Trying to pays a little bit more. Um, but this stuff moves, you know, it’s just, uh, uh, annoying.
Right. Getting back to diesel real quick, three days flow, the four year average. So inventories look, you know, they’re, they’re in good shape. Industrial production numbers have been really excellent here. Uh, and certainly diesel car sponsor with the global growth. Um, story. Uh, again, we’ll see what happens with tariffs cause that that could hit these all right away till the trade routes or fill some of the new trade routes are, are uh, are figured out.
Well, you just, you painted a sort of a friendly picture for, uh, for uh, diesel. This lesson. Maybe a less bullish picture for gasoline, but um, I’m always reminded having set next, next to for so long you never want to trade heating load versus, or this looks versus gasoline. Correct.
No, that as sweet does. Rehau is known as the widow maker. That’s, that’s the last thing it should be doing is trading, is trading heat to gas. Particularly, even though it may look like the greatest of all times, you know, something, some refinery goes down the Gulf coast for fine, you know, Monster Golf coast for finery, right. The bill of this season. And you’re, you know, you’re dead. Yes.
Yeah. It’s, um, a really interesting what happens. That’s like, to me, that’s one of the original widow makers. Now it’s the, uh, you know, March, April, natural gases. We’ve lost a few people because of that, over the years. Right. Okay. So, um, what else do we want to talk about here? We, we, uh, what, what are going again going forward. What about Venezuela? Talk
about that as well. The CIA had him down at 1.5. Oh, the SLAs, you know, the bureau was talking about Venezuelan production being half since, uh, Chavez took over in 99. Um, and it just doesn’t look as though, uh, the declines are really going to be stopped. Um, you know, they may not be such a dramatic pace, but, uh, certainly, you know, you really don’t see a, Venice is the best I think we could see out of Venezuela is stabilizing maybe, you know, around these levels plus plus or minus. Um, so that, that’s continues to be a, a, you know, a real problem. And again, you know, Baral um, is, is, um, giving the warning bell, you know, start talking about things that need to be talked about. Right. And speaking of things that need to be talked about, we’ve got certainly chill, a lot of geopolitical things are, um, suffering if not even boiling later this week, we’ll, we’ll see what the u s response to serious going to be. Um, today, today, uh, the hoody rebels a sent in, uh, missiles to Riyadh. Uh, so the proxy war between Saudi and Iran looks like that’s heating up. Um, and then there’s the, then this is the whole of the Iranian deal, the nuclear deal.
And that’s May 12th. We’re going to this, that May 12th. And that does it look like
there’s been no indication that uh, that deal is not going to be scotched you know, it doesn’t look, I think that deal, uh, on May 12th, uh, could be facing
sand. Yeah. The, it’s is it called the joint comprehensive plan of Action to change the Poa? You kind of feel it. It’s dead already, right?
You sort of get that feel like it less than, unless something happens at the last minute, which is certainly possible that this administration, um, but you’re not getting, has been no indication otherwise.
Yeah. On our, on our website, I put up that story from the Columbia, what is it called? This Cipla. Yeah, that was a great story. Yeah. Guy wrote an article about what we thought was gonna happen and I think he came up with maybe three to 500,000 barrels off the market. I think it’s 300. Yeah. 300 to 500 a day. A day. Right, right. So, um, I think you think that’s in the market already? Are we going to, this is going to add more, I think. I think it probably is in the market, but there’s a winding road on the chase CPOA and a lot, a lot of it, a
different hurdles. So you’re not, it’s not, it’s not a straight line. Like all of a sudden we lose three to 500. That’s kind of the, the number you think it’s going to be, but there are a lot, a lot of iterations there. Uh, but I, that’s what I’m going with this three to 500 by and it could as early as fourth quarter, which obviously is going to exacerbate the, the shortfall. And we don’t know if there’s going to be, you know, if this is going to be a response for out of the SPR, you know, if OPEC is going to increase their price, increased production, uh, which is online, you know, looking at what the Saudis have been saying. It doesn’t, it doesn’t
that way. And, um, after that, I guess the next event would be the, uh, June OPEC meeting Ryan and the chairs OPEC meeting. And that’s, I mean, the way we’re looking at it now as everybody’s, uh, happy and they’ll probably roll it over officially rolled over. It’s a 2019.
Yeah. However, there they’re going to have, one thing they will have is, is the benefit of what’s going to happen with the Iranian deal. You know, we’ll see where they’re going, but I would bet they just, they just roll it over. Uh, we probably are going to see some more barrels coming out of Veracode, uh, over the next six months. They just, they just completed their southern export pipelines. So I think, um, you might see, or Iraq creep a few barrels out, a few more out of the south, possibly even of the north. So that’s something to watch.
Finally, something, uh, did she,
well, so Jim is, we both alluded to, you know, you may see demand start not just showing that boom, that it looks like it’s showing in the first quarter of this year.
Yeah, I was, uh, I saw this, a story in the Financial Times earlier in March, and they’re talking about, you know, these, um, there’s a lot of these now casts that, that take a current, um, data and use a model and predict what the, you know, current, uh, economic, uh, rate is, and they’re starting to roll over. I guess a was, was the, uh, you know, especially in, in Japan and Germany. I guess maybe the, for the euro area that the high value of the euro is hurting a manufacturing maybe. Um, but the point is that, you know, we get high oil prices and that might have a little stifling of a, of demand as well. And as we’ll see how that plays out. But yeah, it’s really, you know, it’s really hard to point to too many things that we’ll want you to sell the market and, and um, that’s what, that’s what makes me want, I want to get, I want to get bearish. So
bullish factors out there, you know, what could, what could, what could set the market off. Certainly. Uh, any, any type of military action that, that widens. While bullish can also be bearish as, as we’ve learned many times how swatch of the soil market. Right. What else? What else did we Miss Sandy? I think, I think we covered, I think we covered a lot. We didn’t, we didn’t really talk about price. Yeah. That’s how I want to go eat. We usually, we usually get,
uh, like a $10 range from you, which is very brave. But I appreciate, you know, I think
we were working with 60, 70 for a while. I think we’re still, I think we’re still there for a WTI. I think we’re still there. Can we, can we hit 70 well we got up to 67 and a half or 45 and you know, I’m thinking 68 69 it’s doable. So that would put 70 at, it’s hard to see it, you know, and now we’re at 67 and a half. Okay. If we get a big technical sell off, yeah, maybe we can get down though 60
but yeah, you know, when you look at the options world, you, you do see some front end, put a w, I hate to say it put buying cause it’s also selling, but the, the act of a strikes are as expected in May and June 60 puts the May 62 put and there has been somebody that seems to like the 57th strikes. So for a couple months in a row, um, that thing gets a jacked up, a little on the open interest. Nothing, nothing crazy, nothing up in that 50,000 range. But you know, these are probably over, over 30,000 open interest. And I’m on the call side. It’s still stuff out in, uh, you know, that December, uh, a sixties and, and um, uh, the June 6th, these, these are, these are things that traded a long time ago and uh, and sort of the newer ones, maybe the [inaudible] Sandy, um, those backlog calls, as I mentioned, um, we’re, we’re more active after the OPEC and the IEA reports came out last month.
So that’s something I cause, um, you know, squirreled away in this option world. That’s something I’ll be looking for is how people react to these, these, uh, reports at prices far away from today’s price. That’s what the option flow is good for, I think. Um, yeah. So, uh, if, if you, if the market was to trade out of your range, which way, what would you, what would you, you know, if I had to put a, you know, if you had to make, I say, which way is it going to break out is going to be on a downside or the upside, what would you say right now?
Well, I’d have to say it, I’d have to say offside now. I know where you were saying your spidey sense is that it may be, should be sold up here cause everything talked about as bullish. You’re probably right.
Yeah. I, you know, I look at these markets as a like watching the Beatles. If you were a, if you were a buyer of the Beatles and you may lot of money if you bought them in German when they were working in Germany, did you did well when, uh, they all got together and started getting girlfriends. That was the time to sell them. Right? So it just seems to me we were in that everybody loves this market for the upside and uh, it didn’t, it would make me really nervous though.
Definitely hear you. Volatility
still, you know, it’s just round. It bumped up a little bit, but it’s like 24, 25%. Again, the longterm averages around 33 and uh, there’s, there’s a huge, there’s huge tendencies when the market goes down, vows tend to pick up when the market goes up. Vows tend to to go down except in geopolitical situations and then they market running up on those things that evolves. Blast. So. Okay, what else? Andy? Look good. Right? Right.
I think, God, I think that’s it. Once again, um, if you want some more information about us or get a hold of us on email, my email is a, l e B o firstname.lastname@example.org. Uh, we write a monthly report and, uh, you know, we’ll be happy to, uh, happy to send those out or any questions that you might have other report.
Sounds great. Andy, I’ll, uh, I’ll talk to you next month. All right. Sounds good. Crg signing off.