I thought the soybean market would just reroute supplies with the overall effect being producers recieve a little bit lower price, consumers pay a little more, but Business Insider quoting a Goldman study says otherwise, as does the market (my bold):
“After the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on roughly $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, China retaliated with similar tariffs on American products including soybeans. Soybean futures for November delivery fell last week to $8.26 per bushel, the lowest in nearly a decade.
“The result is consistent with our commodity team’s view that trade tensions should have a minor impact on commodity markets with the sole exception of soybeans, where it is not possible to completely reroute supplies should China levy tariffs on US soybeans,” Goldman’s James Weldon said in a note on Thursday. As the New York Times reported, China’s farms are generally too underdeveloped to replace a shortfall in imports.“
Here is the link: http://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-tweets-on-trade-affect-markets-2018-7