The EIA on Iranian crude oil production…

by Jim Colburn • Thursday, October 11, 2018

From “This Week In Petroleum”, the EIA discusses assumptions on Iranian production, here:

“The October STEO assumes that the effects of sanctions will increase over the first few months of full implementation and that average Iranian crude oil production (excluding condensate) in 2019 will fall by approximately 1.0 million barrels per day (b/d) from Iran’s April 2018 production level of 3.83 million b/d. This decline is similar to the drop in Iranian crude oil production when sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank were imposed in 2012 (Figure 2). EIA also expects condensate production to fall as a result of the new sanctions. Crude oil and condensate exports are a significant source of revenue for Iran, with net oil exports estimated at $55 billion in 2017. The situation remains dynamic and the exact effect of the sanctions will depend on both the total volume of crude oil and condensate that comes off the market and the response from OPEC members and other countries.”

“According to data from ClipperData, Iranian exports of crude oil and condensate in 2018 peaked in June at more than 2.7 million b/d and averaged 2.4 million b/d more than the in first four months of the year (before the announcement of sanctions in May). In September, exports fell to 1.6 million b/d (Figure 3). Although some countries, such as France and South Korea, stopped importing crude oil and condensate from Iran in July, other countries continue to import from Iran, increasing the uncertainty in forecasting the effects of sanctions.”

 

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