The Daily Shot has some good charts on oil… WSJ

by Jim Colburn • Monday, June 11, 2018

The Daily Shot, Wall Street Journal, does a nice job in compiling interesting charts on a wide range of topics… Here are some from today..

Venezulea’s rig count:

We do still see demand response to higher gasoline price, but as a percent of total income, not as important…

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John Kemp on the cyclical behavior of oil prices… EIA

by Jim Colburn • Friday, June 8, 2018

The EIA posted John Kemp’s excellent presentation at last week’s energy conference put on by the EIA… Here is only one of many excellent slides:

Here is the link:  https://www.eia.gov/conference/2018/pdf/presentations/john_kemp.pdf

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Carbon capture getting cheaper… Nature

by Jim Colburn • Friday, June 8, 2018

Jeff Tollefson, Nature, writes:

”Depending on a variety of design options and economic assumptions, the cost of pulling a tonne of CO2 from the atmosphere ranges between US$94 and $232. The last comprehensive analysis of the technology, conducted by the American Physical Society in 2011, estimated that it would cost $600 per tonne.”

Here is the link:  https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w

 

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Cheap power, cryptocurrencies, Plattsburgh, NY… PBS

by Jim Colburn • Friday, June 8, 2018

Last night PBS’s The NewsHour had an excellent piece on crypto miners moving to an area of cheap power (Plattsburgh, NY) and local response, here…  Here is a recent picture of marginal power prices in NY State (Plattsburgh is in the upper eastern part):

Could Plattsburgh work out something with NYPA and intensive energy users (crypto miners, data crunchers, marijuana growers, hot houses, storage providers, etc.) to only fire up at night?

 

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Outlier in the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report…

by Jim Colburn • Thursday, June 7, 2018

The numbers in the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report are the gold standard but often times can be quite noisy… Or, one week does not a trend make… Here is a chart showing the category “total products supplied” or “implied demand”:

The June 1 number,  18,456,000 million barrels compares to 21,217,000 last week…  Here is the link: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WRPUPUS2&f=W

 

 

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Vehicle miles traveled.. EIA

by Jim Colburn • Thursday, June 7, 2018

From the EIA’s Today in Energy, here is a chart showing vehicle miles traveled categorized by number of vehicles owned…

“In 2017, the total VMT for household vehicles was 2.11 trillion vehicle miles, down from the 2.25 trillion vehicle miles reported by NHTS for 2009, the previous NHTS survey year. Vehicle travel in households with only one vehicle increased from 2009 to 2017, which was the only category to do so.”

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Record US Oil Exports… WSJ

by Jim Colburn • Thursday, June 7, 2018

Josh Mitchell and Christopher M. Matthews, The Wall Street Journal, comment on Commerce Department trade data released on Wednesday, here

“The U.S. exported a record amount of oil and fuel in April, helping to narrow the nation’s trade gap while giving the economy a lift.
The country shipped $19.9 billion in petroleum—a category that includes crude oil, liquefied gases and fuels such as gasoline—to other countries in April, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That set a record after adjusting for inflation and seasonal factors. The U.S. is exporting four times as much petroleum each month as it did a decade ago.”

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Oil vol at low levels historically… WSJ

by Jim Colburn • Monday, June 4, 2018

Sarah McFarlane, Wall Street Journal, has a nice piece on oil volatility here

”The volatility of Brent crude, the international benchmark, has fallen to around 22%, measured by the standard deviation of daily price moves over the past year. Since 1995, the average has been 32%. A lower figure indicates less volatility.”

I show the long term implied volatility to be around 33% for WTI…

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The Daily Shot… WSJ

by Jim Colburn • Sunday, June 3, 2018

The Wall Street Journal’s The Daily Shot does a nice job highlighting some energy charts… US oil production continues to soar while takeaway capacity lags causing price spreads to blow out:

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Fed GDP Nowcasts…

by Jim Colburn • Sunday, June 3, 2018

Both Fed GDP Nowcasts are looking up… Here is Atlanta:

”The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.8 percent on June 1, up from 4.7 percent on May 31. The nowcasts for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.4 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, after the employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management were released this morning.”

And, here is NY:

 

 

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