IEA’s Birol says oil supply a concern… Reuters

by Jim Colburn • Wednesday, April 11, 2018

International Energy Agency’s Executive Director Fatih Birol is quoted in a Reuters article here

”The “growth in the United States alone is not enough to make me feel comfortable that there will be enough production in the future because of two reasons,” Birol said on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum.

First, global oil consumption is still growing strongly, gaining 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, driven by petrochemical, industrial and aviation demand, he said.

Second, some older, maturing fields are in decline.

 “Every year we’re losing (the equivalent of) North Sea production, which is 3 million barrels per day,” he said.”
And this:
””Our expectation for 2018 investment is only 40 percent of what we’ve seen in 2014 before prices collapsed,” Birol said.”

 

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US natural gas production set a record in 2017… EIA

by Jim Colburn • Wednesday, April 11, 2018

The EIA’s excellent Today in Energy has some nice charts here

Note the rapid growth of LNG exports:

 

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US Gasoline Exports… WSJ

by Jim Colburn • Monday, April 9, 2018

Stephanie Yang, WSJ, has a piece here on high gasoline prices caused in part by strong economic growth worldwide:

“That’s a big difference from a decade ago, or even a few years ago,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service. “We’re kind of refiners to the entire Western Hemisphere right now.”

Strong global demand has kept oil prices lifted, as synchronized economic expansion has contributed to increased fuel consumption.

In an April note, Goldman Sachs analysts said January oil demand exceeded expectations by 1 million barrels a day, mainly on the back of strong gasoline and distillate demand growth. According to the report, gasoline demand was up 2.8% compared with last January, despite several winter storms that could have crimped the need for gas.”

 

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Soybean trade routes disrupted… Reuters

by Jim Colburn • Sunday, April 8, 2018

Karl Plume, Reuters, does an excellent job explaining what US/China proposed tariffs on soybeans is already doing to trade patterns here

China still needs soybeans:

”But accelerated buying of Brazilian beans by Chinese importers, weary of potentially paying steep tariffs on U.S. purchases, has sent Brazilian export premiums to historic highs.

Near-term soybean shipments from Brazil peaked near 200 cents above CBOT May soybean futures SK8 before pulling back to around 170 cents over by the end of the week, traders said. U.S. Gulf Coast shipments, by comparison, were only around 90 cents a bushel above futures.”

And this:

”The USDA said 458,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans were sold to undisclosed destinations, which traders and grains analysts said included EU soybean processors such as the Netherlands and Germany.

If the entire volume is confirmed to be going to the European Union, it would be the largest one-off sale to the bloc in more than 15 years, according to USDA data. The USDA could not immediately be reached for comment.”

Lower prices for US producers, higher prices for Chinese consumers…

 

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Taxing Carbon: Boon for Economy & Climate? … Columbia Energy Exchange

by Jim Colburn • Saturday, April 7, 2018

This is a good one:

“On a new episode of Columbia Energy Exchange, host Jason Bordoff sits down with Glenn Hubbard, the Dean of Columbia Business School, to understand how a carbon tax might be designed and what effects it would have on the U.S. economy and business. Glenn and Jason also discuss the outlook for the U.S. economy, President Trump’s tax reforms and tariffs on solar, steel and aluminum, as well as the role of business to mitigate climate change and how companies will address their exposure to climate risk.”

Here is the link:  http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/taxing-carbon-boon-economy-climate

 

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Insurance linked securities… Institutional Investor

by Jim Colburn • Saturday, April 7, 2018

Via The Big Picture, Instutional Investor has a very nice article on insurance linked securities here

“But ILS funds faced a major test last year. After 12 years in which no major Atlantic hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. — the catastrophe, or peril in industry parlance, that accounts for a significant proportion of cat bond coverage — a trio of hurricanes, as well as California wildfires and an earthquake in Mexico, racked up an estimated $130 billion to $135 billion of losses, including $80 billion to $90 billion in losses from hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, according to Trading Risk.”

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Oil rig count… Princeton Energy Advisors via Calculated Risk

by Jim Colburn • Saturday, April 7, 2018

From Princeton Energy Advisors, here is a nice look at rigs vs. WTI Oil price:

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Permian differentials widening… RBN

by Jim Colburn • Thursday, April 5, 2018

The excellent RBN Energy blog here, discusses the widening Permian oil price differentials due to rapidly growing production bumping into takeaway capacity:

Do read the whole thing…

 

 

 

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US oil exports soar.. EIA

by Jim Colburn • Thursday, April 5, 2018

This week’s eye popping stay from the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report is, once again, oil exports, estimated at 2.175 mbd:

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US Oil Production… EIA

by Jim Colburn • Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Here are nice charts from the EIA’s Today in Energy:

“Annual average U.S. crude oil production reached 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017, an increase of 464,000 b/d from 2016 levels after declining by 551,000 b/d in 2016. In November 2017, monthly U.S. crude oil production reached 10.07 million b/d, the highest monthly level of crude oil production in U.S. history. U.S. crude oil production has increased significantly over the past 10 years, driven mainly by production from tight rock formations using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will continue to grow in 2018 and 2019, averaging 10.7 million b/d and 11.3 million b/d, respectively.”

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