OPEC is watching this chart closely…

by Jim Colburn • Thursday, November 30, 2017

From the EIA, here is a chart of US oil production:

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by Jim Colburn • Thursday, November 30, 2017

Today’s economic release of the PCE price index shows inflation is still below the Fed’s target of 2%:

An evidence based Fed policy would not be raising interest rates…

Here is the link from the WSJ: http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.html


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US Gasoline imports vs exports… EIA

by Jim Colburn • Thursday, November 30, 2017


From the excellent This Week in Petroleum put out by the EIA:

”Despite record high gasoline consumption, the United States is on pace to export more gasoline than it imports for the second year in a row. Changes in regional markets, increased demand for exports, and high refinery runs are once again leading to the United States to be a net exporter in 2017.”

”…for every month between April and August 2017, the United States set either record low net imports or record high net exports…

“Between 2013 and 2016, Gulf Coast gasoline exports increased by 236,000 b/d (54%), while East Coast imports increased by 41,000 b/d (7%), resulting in a shift for the United States as a whole.”

“A majority of the growth in U.S. gasoline exports has been to markets in Mexico and Central and South America. In the first half of 2017, Mexico accounted for 53% of the 755,000 b/d of U.S. total motor gasoline exports. Low utilization of Mexican refineries and the ongoing market reforms of Mexico’s retail fuel distribution have resulted in continued increased demand for gasoline supplies from the U.S. Gulf Coast.”

”U.S. gross refinery inputs set a record high of 17.8 million b/d for the week ending August 25 and have been higher than the five-year range for a majority of 2017 (Figure 3).”









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Rubin interviews Swensen….

by Jim Colburn • Monday, November 27, 2017

and it is excellent!



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Over-Achieving OPEC… WSJ

by Jim Colburn • Sunday, November 26, 2017

OPEC may be doing too much suggests the Wall Street Journal:

”The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ 14 members and other major producers like Russia are widely expected to strike an agreement this week to continue withholding about 2% of global oil supply from the market. The national energy ministers of about two dozen countries are set to meet Thursday at the oil cartel’s headquarters in Vienna…

Some members, along with outside analysts, say that OPEC could overstimulate the market and send prices too high next year. That, in turn, risks depressing demand for crude.”

OECD stock levels are declining (but still over the 5 year average):


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The treasury curve flattens… The Daily Shot

by Jim Colburn • Saturday, November 25, 2017

Within the many charts displayed in The Daily Shot there are some excellent ones that show the flattening yield curve:

Also from The Daily Shot:

”The public is now paying attention to this trend – here is the Google search frequency for “yield curve flattening”.”

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5 Economic Reasons to be Thankful… Calculated Risk

by Jim Colburn • Saturday, November 25, 2017

Here is one of them from Calculated Risk:

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US gasoline prices ahead of Thanksgiving are higher than previous two years… EIA

by Jim Colburn • Wednesday, November 22, 2017

The EIA shows average gasoline prices are higher this Thanksgiving:


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Oil moves higher…

by Jim Colburn • Wednesday, November 22, 2017

The Wall Street Journal explains:

””The market’s focus on the OPEC meeting [on Nov. 30] has been temporarily disrupted, with prices supported by the continued outage of a pipeline from Canada to the U.S.,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at SaxoBank. “That combined with the big draw report from the (American Petroleum Institute) data has resulted in WTI being the outperformer for a change,” he added.

TransCanada, the company which operates the Keystone pipeline told customers Tuesday that it will reduce oil deliveries via the supply line by 85% through the end of November, according to ING in a note. “The longer the disruption goes on for, the more supportive it will be for WTI, with reduced Canadian flows to the U.S.,” the note added.

That news followed data from the API’, late Tuesday, that showed a 6.4 million-barrel decrease in crude supplies for the week, an 869,000-barrel rise in gasoline stocks and a 1.7 million-barrel decline in distillate inventories, according to a market participant. That drop came partly thanks to lower imports and was “surprisingly pronounced,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note.“

Here is a 5 year look from barchart.com:



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Record bullish positions by hedge funds… Kemp

by Jim Colburn • Monday, November 20, 2017

John Kemp puts out a weekly chart book which illustrates how very long hedge funds are in the energy complex:


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