European GDP comparison… WSJ

by Jim Colburn • Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Here is a chart from the Wall Street Journal’s The Daily Shot which compares trajectories of European GDP since moving to the Euro:

+ read more

Real interest rates moving up…

by Jim Colburn • Monday, October 15, 2018

Here is the chart from the Fed’s FRED:

Moving higher, but still not at pre-2008 levels…

+ read more

Oil exports to China down to a trickle… WSJ

by Jim Colburn • Monday, October 15, 2018

Georgi Kantchev and Rebecca Elliott, Wall Street Journal, comment on US exports to China which have declined sharply:

All is not lost say the authors:

”As China turns American oil down, U.S. producers have found new markets and overall oil exports haven’t fallen significantly.

But the changes have scrambled the global oil trade, with Russia and Saudi Arabia moving in to replace U.S. oil in China. American producers, in turn, are displacing other producers from its new markets. The situation is also hitting the profits of some shipowners, as the long and lucrative route from the U.S. to China dries up.”

 

+ read more

Lessons from Howard Marks’ New Book… 25iq

by Jim Colburn • Monday, October 15, 2018

I enjoyed 25iq’s take on Howard Marks’ new book, here…  Here is one takeaway, but do read the whole thing, and check out at least one interview from the links at the bottom…

”One of my favorite parts of the Tim Ferriss podcast is when Marks makes a point that has been a consistent theme of this blog: “there are many ways to invest; there are many people who engage in activities that I think can’t be done, and there are many people in each one who do very well. I don’t say mine is the only way. Venture is an example.” Marks agrees with Charlie Munger on the importance of “the discipline of mastering the best that other people have ever figured out. I don’t believe in just sitting down and trying to dream it all up yourself. Nobody’s that smart.” During a lunch with Marks Munger once said: “It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid. There are many layers to this, and you just have to think well.” But it can get easier if you work hard and stay humble by recognizing what you do not know. As Michael Mauboussin likes to say: “the best long-term performers in any probabilistic field — such as investing, sports-team management, and pari-mutuel betting — all emphasize process over outcome.””

+ read more

Natural gas storage to enter winter at lowest levels since 2005… EIA

by Jim Colburn • Saturday, October 13, 2018

The link is here

+ read more

Global fuel inventories… EIA

by Jim Colburn • Thursday, October 11, 2018

Here is what the EIA is saying about global inventories:

“In 2018, EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories to decrease by 200,000 b/d followed by an increase of 280,000 b/d in 2019 (Figure 4).”

 

+ read more

The EIA on Iranian crude oil production…

by Jim Colburn • Thursday, October 11, 2018

From “This Week In Petroleum”, the EIA discusses assumptions on Iranian production, here:

“The October STEO assumes that the effects of sanctions will increase over the first few months of full implementation and that average Iranian crude oil production (excluding condensate) in 2019 will fall by approximately 1.0 million barrels per day (b/d) from Iran’s April 2018 production level of 3.83 million b/d. This decline is similar to the drop in Iranian crude oil production when sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank were imposed in 2012 (Figure 2). EIA also expects condensate production to fall as a result of the new sanctions. Crude oil and condensate exports are a significant source of revenue for Iran, with net oil exports estimated at $55 billion in 2017. The situation remains dynamic and the exact effect of the sanctions will depend on both the total volume of crude oil and condensate that comes off the market and the response from OPEC members and other countries.”

“According to data from ClipperData, Iranian exports of crude oil and condensate in 2018 peaked in June at more than 2.7 million b/d and averaged 2.4 million b/d more than the in first four months of the year (before the announcement of sanctions in May). In September, exports fell to 1.6 million b/d (Figure 3). Although some countries, such as France and South Korea, stopped importing crude oil and condensate from Iran in July, other countries continue to import from Iran, increasing the uncertainty in forecasting the effects of sanctions.”

 

+ read more

Tyler Cowen On Romer, Nordhaus… Bloomberg

by Jim Colburn • Monday, October 8, 2018

Here is the link:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-08/romer-nordhaus-are-deserving-picks-for-economics-nobel

+ read more

Natural gas prices surging… CNBC

by Jim Colburn • Monday, October 8, 2018

Here is what’s been going on in natural gas (the lower chart is implied volatility):

Tom DiChristopher at CNBC has a nice piece explaining why, here:

”On the one hand, U.S. natural gas production is rising at a record-breaking pace of about 9 billion cubic feet per day. But gas demand for power generation is also at a record. Three new U.S. liquefied natural gas export facilities are scheduled to open through the first quarter of 2019, gas-consuming industrial projects are coming online and new connections are slated to deliver U.S. supplies to Mexican power plants.

“These offsetting factors point to a gas market that will balance on a knife’s edge this winter, with little spare room on either side,” according to Cohen.”

(The chart is from Barchart.com…)

+ read more

Orsted Makes a Move In U.S…. NYT

by Jim Colburn • Monday, October 8, 2018

More offshore wind farms are coming… Here is Stanley Reed, New York Times:

”Falling costs for offshore projects have caught the attention of electric power providers and investors in the United States. By planting large arrays of turbines on the sea bottom, developers say they can construct large installations that are mostly out of sight of land yet within easy transmission range of large population centers like Boston and New York.

These projects can generate large amounts of electricity free of carbon dioxide emissions, and can be used to meet clean energy targets and to replace aging nuclear and coal-fired power stations. Among other states, New Jersey and New York have ambitions to build substantial offshore wind projects.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/08/business/energy-environment/orsted-deepwater-wind-energy.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness&action=click&contentCollection=business&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront

+ read more
404