Here is some common sense from Tom Pugh, Capital Economics, quoted in the WSJ, here…
”“If the U.S. is exporting less to China, it’s exporting more to Europe, and it’s unclear whether global demand would actually be affected,” said Tom Pugh, commodities analyst at Capital Economics.”+ read more
CRG’s own Andy Lebow is quoted in the Wall Street Journal here:
““If there’s any impact on the global economy from disruption of trade due to tariffs, that’s going to have an impact on oil consumption,” said Andy Lebow, a senior partner at Commodity Research Group.
Combined with the upcoming OPEC meeting, Mr. Lebow said, the trade tension was prompting traders to liquidate their bets that prices would rise.“
Here is more from the Journal:
”While Saudi Arabia is considering an increase of 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day and Russia wishes to raise output as much as 1.5 million barrels a day, some OPEC members including Iran and Venezuela don’t support an increase, according to Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank.”
+ read more
The EIA’s This Week In Petroleum helps us put stock levels in perspective… Compared to 5 year averages we see that distillate stocks are tightest, crude stocks are in the middle of the range and gasoline stocks are at the upper part of the range:
And, based on stock levels, one might expect gasoline prices to be under distillate going into the driving season:
The chart is from Barchart.com….+ read more
From yesterday’s release of the EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook, here is their chart on expected supply/demand for liquid fuels… The EIA is the most bearish (least bullish) outlook based on stock changes compared with the other two monthly outlooks from OPEC and the IEA:+ read more
Here is the IEA on possible production shortfalls from Iran and Venezuela:
“The issue of exports from Venezuela and Iran is likely to dominate the agenda when leading producers meet in Vienna later this month. For our part, we have looked at a scenario, not a forecast, showing that by the end of next year output from these two countries could be 1.5 mb/d lower than it is today. In Iran’s case, we assume a loss of exports close to that seen in the last round of sanctions, recognising that this remains uncertain and a broader range of outcomes is possible. No judgement was made as to which countries will cut back purchases. For Venezuela, we assume no respite in the production collapse that has taken 1 mb/d off the market in the past two years.
To make up for the losses, we estimate that Middle East OPEC countries could increase production in fairly short order by about 1.1 mb/d and there could be more output from Russia on top of the increase already built into our 2019 non-OPEC supply numbers. However, even if the Iran/Venezuela supply gap is plugged, the market will be finely balanced next year, and vulnerable to prices rising higher in the event of further disruption. It is possible that the very small number of countries with spare capacity beyond what can be activated quickly will have to go the extra mile.”+ read more
ExxonMobil is finally going to optimize its asset base and take advantage of the massive optionality within and without its system… Here is Liz Hampton and Ernest Scheyder, Reuters:
”The development is a sea change for a company that has stood out from rivals by limiting its past activity out of concern it would be accused of market manipulation. Exxon now aims to trade around more of its growing energy assets to get the best prices for its products and increase earnings, according to an employee familiar with the matter.
Expanded trading could add hundreds of millions of dollars to annual earnings from its own buying and selling of crude and fuels, but also comes with problems, including higher risk. Exxon (XOM.N) expects to add 1 million barrels per day of output over the next several years as new oilfields and refinery expansions kick in, giving it more assets to trade.”+ read more
You can listen here…
“On a special episode of Columbia Energy Exchange, guest host Dan Yergin and Ryan Lance discuss the state of the oil and gas industry. Dan is the Vice Chair of IHS Markit. He is the Pulitzer Prize winning author of The Prize and a member of the Center on Global Energy Policy’s advisory board. Ryan is the Chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips and has more than 32 years of experience in the oil and natural gas industry. Ryan is a petroleum engineer and has served across a wide range of executive assignments at ConocoPhillips including responsibility for international exploration and production, technology, downstream strategy, integration, and regional responsibilities in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and North America.
Dan and Ryan sat down in front of a live audience in April at CGEP’s 5th annual Global Energy Summit. They discussed opportunities and challenges facing the oil and gas industry including, the outlook for global oil supply, regulation in the U.S., climate change and geopolitical risk across the world.”+ read more
Summer Said and Benoit Faucon, Wall Street Journal, report that the Saudis have begun to ramp up oil production by 100,000 bd, here…
”Saudi oil officials said Friday the kingdom has already boosted output last month by more than 100,000 barrels a day. That has raised Saudi overall output to about 10 million barrels a day.”
”These officials said Saudi Arabia plans to boost output by at least another 100,000 barrels a day this month but they didn’t say when.”
”Saudi Arabia and some other Persian Gulf producers recently favored the idea of increasing overall output by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day, The Wall Street Journal has previously reported. Most of that increase would need to come from Saudi Arabia, which enjoys more so-called spare capacity—the ability to quickly ramp up idle fields.”
+ read more
Here is the EIA’s Today in Energy on global trade:
”Global trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) reached 38.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 10% (3.5 Bcf/d) increase from 2016 and the largest annual volume increase on record, according to the Annual Report on LNG trade by the International Association of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL). In 2017, there were 19 LNG exporting countries and 40 LNG importing countries. Australia and the United States were among the countries with the largest increases (2.7 Bcf/d combined) in 2017 LNG exports.”+ read more